By Joseph Ax
March 3 (Reuters) – A hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas headlines the official start of the midterm elections on Tuesday, when voters in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas cast the first ballots of the campaign to decide which party controls the U.S. Congress during President Donald Trump’s last two years in office.
Tuesday’s contests will determine the Republican and Democratic nominees for congressional races and other offices in those states for November’s general election, when all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate’s 100 seats will be at stake.
The elections take place days after the U.S. attacked Iran, a move that some White House aides privately worry could pose political risks for Trump and Republicans at a time when voters have made it clear they are more concerned with domestic issues, including affordability and immigration.
November’s battle for the U.S. House of Representatives will be particularly hard-fought, with Democrats needing to flip only three Republican-held seats to capture a majority in the chamber. Democrats face longer odds in winning the Senate.
Trump’s approval ratings have fallen, and the president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections. A Democratic majority in either chamber could block much of Trump’s legislative agenda and open damaging investigations into his administration.
TEXAS SENATE RACE EXPOSES TENSIONS IN BOTH PARTIES
For both Democrats and Republicans, the bruising Senate primary contest in Texas has offered an early test of the divides roiling each party.
Incumbent Republican John Cornyn, an establishment conservative who has served more than two decades in the Senate, appears in danger of losing the party’s nomination to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a firebrand ally of Trump who has remained popular with the president’s MAGA base despite a multitude of scandals.
Cornyn has argued that a Paxton victory would turn a safe Republican seat into a competitive race that could imperil the party’s slim Senate majority, while Paxton has dismissed Cornyn as out of touch with the state’s voters.
Both candidates have touted their support for Trump, including backing the military strikes in Iran. The president has not made a formal endorsement.
Senate Republican leadership has backed Cornyn, whose allies have outspent Paxton’s side $69 million to $4 million on advertising, according to the tracking firm AdImpact, in a sign of the party’s concerns about the polarizing Paxton.
With another far-right conservative, U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt, also running, the contest is likely to advance to a run-off election in May between the top two finishers.
On the Democratic side, James Talarico, a state representative who has put his Christian faith at the center of his campaign and made explicit appeals to Republican voters, is in a neck-and-neck race with U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, whose fiery denunciations of Trump have gained her a national following.
Democrats have long harbored hopes of turning Texas blue, but the party has not won a statewide race since 1994. Nevertheless, party leaders say the scandal-plagued Paxton – who has survived an impeachment by Republican lawmakers, a securities fraud indictment and a messy divorce – could prove vulnerable in November.
Analysts said Paxton would still be the favorite given Texas’ conservative electorate.
“Ken Paxton is still a Republican in a very Republican state that’s got a turnout machine that understands how to win elections,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor.
NEW MAPS SCRAMBLE RACES
In North Carolina, voters will choose the nominees for another critical Senate race, where Republican Thom Tillis’ retirement has created a vacant seat in a swing state.
Democrats hope former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, who faces token intraparty opposition, can flip the seat in November. The popular Cooper has won statewide six times.
Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman who boasts Trump’s endorsement, has held a sizable lead in public polls over a half-dozen other Republican candidates.
Tuesday’s contests will also mark the first time that new congressional maps are used in Texas and North Carolina, after Republican lawmakers last year redrew the states’ U.S. House district lines at Trump’s behest to try to gain more Republican seats, igniting a nationwide redistricting fight.
Some incumbent House members in Texas could be ousted on Tuesday. Republican Tony Gonzales, already facing a tough race from a conservative YouTuber, has resisted bipartisan calls to resign after allegations that he had a relationship with a female staffer who later died by suicide. He has denied wrongdoing.
In the Houston area, two sitting Democratic congressmembers, Al Green and Christian Menefee, are facing each other after the new map dismantled Green’s previous seat.
(Reporting by Joseph Ax; Additional reporting by Nolan D. McCaskill; editing by Paul Thomasch and Deepa Babington)
