By Nolan D. McCaskill
(Reuters) -Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives will defend a narrow majority in the November 2026 elections a year from now. Below are some of the races to watch as Republicans and Democrats battle for control of the chamber.
ANOTHER CLOSE CALL IN IOWA?
Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks, a Republican, was elected to Congress in 2020 by the thinnest of margins. Her six-vote victory in 2020 swelled into a 20,000-vote advantage over Democratic state Representative Christina Bohannan in 2022. Bohannan closed the gap in a 2024 rematch but still lost by about 800 votes.
Bohannan is running yet again to unseat Miller-Meeks, but other Democrats are also eager to try to flip one of the most competitive districts in the country. The field for the June 2 Democratic primary includes former state Representative Bob Krause, who served in the Iowa Legislature in the 1970s, healthcare worker Travis Terrell and attorney Taylor Wettach.
Bohannan outraised Miller-Meeks and her Democratic challengers in the third quarter, which covers July through September, but Miller-Meeks began October with $2.6 million in the bank, and she notably performed better in the lower-turnout 2022 midterms than she did in 2020 and 2024, when President Donald Trump was also on the ballot.
A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY IN MAINE
Representative Jared Golden, the lone Democrat to back House Republicans’ stopgap funding bill to avert the ongoing government shutdown, is the most vulnerable House Democrat seeking reelection. Trump won Golden’s district last year by nearly 10 points.
State Auditor Matt Dunlap, a progressive Democrat, is challenging Golden in the June 9 primary. Former Maine Governor Paul LePage, a Republican, is also running for the seat. The moderate-progressive battle among Maine Democrats is also playing out in a high-profile Senate primary between Governor Janet Mills and oysterman Graham Platner.
NO INCUMBENT IN NEBRASKA’S SECOND DISTRICT
Representative Don Bacon is one of just three House Republicans who were reelected in districts that Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris won last year. The difficulty for Republicans to retain that seat is twofold: Harris won it by more than 4 points, and Bacon is retiring, leaving Republicans without an incumbent in Democrats’ top target.
Harris also won the districts of Republican Representatives Mike Lawler of New York and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, but her margins were a fraction of a percentage, and both are running for reelection.
Brinker Harding, an Omaha city councilman, and former state Senator Brett Lindstrom are Republicans contesting the May 12 primary. Democratic primary candidates include Kishla Askins, former deputy assistant secretary of the Department of Veterans Affairs, state Senator John Cavanaugh, former Representative Steny Hoyer of Maryland’s policy director James Leuschen, small business owner Denise Powell and Crystal Rhoades, a district court county clerk.
CAN REPUBLICANS CAPTURE KAPTUR’S DISTRICT?
Ohio’s redistricting commission approved a compromise map that will make two Democratic seats more competitive for Republicans. The delegation has 10 Republicans and five Democrats. Representatives Marcy Kaptur, Emilia Sykes and Greg Landsman are the most vulnerable Democrats in the state. Sykes’ district will be slightly less competitive for Republicans.
Trump won Kaptur’s district by nearly 7 points in 2024. Kaptur won reelection by less than 1 point. A Libertarian candidate won 4% of the vote, an indication that Republicans may have flipped the seat had it been a two-person race. Sykes won by 2 points, and Landsman won by almost 9 points. The compromise avoids a worst-case scenario for Democrats, as Republican lawmakers could have drawn a more partisan map to try to unseat Kaptur, Sykes and Landsman.
AN OPENING IN ARIZONA
Representative David Schweikert, a Republican, is vacating his battleground seat to run for governor of Arizona. Schweikert defeated former state Representative Amish Shah by fewer than 4 points in 2024. Shah is seeking the Democratic nomination again in a crowded field for the August 4 primary that includes former journalist Marlene Galán-Woods, who finished a close third in last year’s primary.
The Republican field includes Arizona Republican Party Chair Gina Swoboda and former federal prosecutor Jason Duey. Schweikert’s district was the most competitive in Arizona, a politically divided state that Trump and Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego both won last year.
TEXAS DEMOCRATS REACH FOR A STAR
Democrats are excited about the candidacy of Bobby Pulido, a Tejano music star hoping to oust Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz. Though Texas state lawmakers drew a new congressional map to net Republicans as many as five new seats, De La Cruz’s South Texas district remains largely intact.
De La Cruz defeated Democrat Michelle Vallejo by 8.5 percentage points in 2022 and 14 points in 2024. House Democrats’ campaign arm has the seat on its target list of districts in play, but Trump won it by 18 points last year, giving Republicans optimism that Democrats risk wasting resources chasing victory in an unwinnable seat.
Pulido is not running uncontested for the Democratic nomination in the March 3 primary. Ada Cuellar, an emergency room doctor, is also in the race. De La Cruz has reported raising nearly $2.6 million through September, and she entered October with $1.7 million in the bank, giving her a sizable financial advantage over her opponents with several months to go before the general election matchup is set.
WILL A WASHINGTON STATE DISTRICT RETURN TO REPUBLICANS?
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District had been in Republican hands for 12 years until Democratic Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez won it in 2022, narrowly defeating Republican Joe Kent. The longtime incumbent, Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler, finished third in the state’s open nonpartisan primary, a system in which the top two vote-getters advance to the general election.
Gluesenkamp Perez defeated Kent by a larger margin in their 2024 rematch, but Republicans believe a stronger candidate can return the district to their column. Trump carried it by 3 points last year, and Perez won it by nearly 4 points. State Senate Minority Leader John Braun, a Republican, is running for the seat.
MASSIE’S MESSY MAGA PRIMARY
Trump pre-endorsed Ed Gallrein over Republican Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky in an October social media post, urging the retired Navy SEAL officer to challenge the incumbent with the president’s “Complete and Total Endorsement.” Gallrein announced his candidacy to take on Massie in the May 19 primary days later.
Massie voted against Trump’s signature One Big Beautiful Bill Act and teamed up with Democratic Representative Ro Khanna of California on legislation to require the Justice Department to publicly release all unclassified materials related to the federal government’s investigation into the late convicted sex offender and financier Jeffrey Epstein. Massie has also joined Democrats in an effort to circumvent House Republican leadership and force a floor vote on the proposal.
Trump has called Massie a “Third Rate Congressman” and “Weak and Pathetic RINO” — a party slur meaning “Republican in name only” — who “must be thrown out of office, ASAP!” Massie has raised $1.8 million this year, more than he has ever raised during any two-year cycle. He entered October with more than $2 million cash on hand.
DEMOCRATS LINE UP TO OUST LAWLER
While Republican Representatives John James of Michigan and David Schweikert of Arizona sacrificed their battleground districts to run for governor of their respective states, Republican Representative Mike Lawler did the opposite, avoiding a potential gubernatorial primary against fellow New York Representative Elise Stefanik, a likely candidate, to help House Republicans preserve their majority.
Lawler is one of three Republicans representing a district Harris won in 2024. Harris won the district by more than half a point, though Lawler defeated former Democratic Representative Mondaire Jones by 6 percentage points. A long line of well-funded Democrats has launched campaigns for the June 23 primary seeking their party’s nomination to unseat Lawler, including Village of Briarcliff Manor Deputy Mayor Peter Chatzky, Army combat veteran and national security expert Cait Conley, Rockland County legislator Beth Davidson, nonprofit leader Jessica Reinmann and former FBI intelligence analyst John Sullivan.
Lawler has raised more than $4 million this year and has $2.8 million in the bank.
A SURPRISE IN SAN FRANCISCO?
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 85, is expected to announce whether she’ll seek reelection to her San Francisco seat after the 2025 election.
Pelosi stepped down from her leadership role after the 2022 midterms, but she continues to serve in Congress. Her potential departure from the House after nearly 40 years in office could pressure her former deputies, Representatives Steny Hoyer, 86, of Maryland and Jim Clyburn, 85, of South Carolina, to retire as well.
But Democrats aren’t necessarily waiting for Pelosi to step aside. Saikat Chakrabarti, New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s former chief of staff, and state Senator Scott Wiener have already entered the field for the June 2 primary. Other Democrats could also enter the race if Pelosi retires. The seat is safely Democratic.
(Reporting by Nolan D. McCaskill; editing by Scott Malone and Howard Goller)
