(Adjusts 8th paragraph to fix publishing issue by moving [Democrats] outside quote)
By Jacob Bogage, Nandita Bose and Matt Spetalnick
WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) – With U.S. gas prices up, President Donald Trump’s approval ratings down and the Iran war dragging on, Republicans are recalibrating their blueprint ahead of November’s midterm elections.
The strategy? Seek to tap Trump’s turnout power without making the races a referendum on an increasingly unpopular president.
In a closed-door meeting this week with top conservative campaign officials, Trump’s political advisers – including White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, political chief James Blair and longtime pollster Tony Fabrizio – outlined a plan for candidates to promote Republicans’ tax cuts and inflation-fighting policies, according to four people familiar with the gathering.
But Republicans want to avoid making Trump himself the focus of the campaign, as strategists worry that his sagging political fortunes could hurt candidates in competitive congressional races. Trump’s party faces an uphill battle to keep its House of Representatives majority, and a growing risk of losing control of the Senate.
Among some Republican operatives, concern is increasing that Trump’s presidency – and political clout – are running out of gas, according to three of the people, plus another seasoned Republican campaign source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private meetings and offer candid assessments.
Trump appears mired in a deadlock with Iran, with both military and diplomatic efforts falling far short of denuclearizing the Islamic Republic and reopening the Strait of Hormuz after two months of war. Rising gas prices – the national average is near $4 per gallon, according to AAA – threaten to neutralize new tax policies from Republicans’ “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” the signature legislative achievement of Trump’s second term.
Only 36% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, the lowest of his current term, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found. And many Americans, including some Republicans, have some concerns about the 79-year-old president’s temperament and mental sharpness following a series of explosive outbursts.
Democrats “are going to try to nationalize the election and say we’re a rubber stamp for Trump,” a Trumpworld political strategist told Reuters. “We have to break out of that and show race by race why we’re the better choice.”
Inside the president’s political operation, enthusiasm remains strong that Trump is an effective messenger. Kiersten Pels, national press secretary for the Republican National Committee, said that Trump would remain “the most powerful driver” of conservative voter turnout in the midterms, and that Republican candidates are eagerly seeking his endorsement.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said Trump was the “unequivocal leader of the Republican party and he is committed to maintaining Republicans’ majority in Congress.”
EMPHASIS ON LOCAL ISSUES, NOT TRUMP
Over coffee and pastries in the meeting on Monday held at what was once Trump’s luxury Washington hotel, now the Waldorf Astoria, Trump’s team asked guests to sign non-disclosure agreements, then predicted Republicans would win a redistricting election the next day in Virginia. The mood was optimistic, the people familiar with the gathering said.
Details of the meeting leaked immediately. A day later, Virginia voters approved the new congressional map Democrats drew to favor their party in November.
“If the people framing this approach are confident about Virginia and they get beat in Virginia, you have to question, are they overconfident about the whole package?” one of the people familiar with the meeting said.
Some Republican insiders are quick to point out that the midterm elections are months away, and that much can change before voters go to the polls. If armed hostilities with Iran slow, gas prices could fall and inflation could cool more broadly.
“The panic is people looking at things right now, but I think the key is to project where it could be over the summer, and it’s still very fluid,” said David McIntosh, president of the Trump-aligned Club for Growth.
Headed into the election cycle, Republicans planned to promote Trump as the party’s standard-bearer, and as the figure who, in his oft-repeated phrase, turned the U.S. into “the hottest country anywhere in the world.”
Wiles in December said Republicans would upend the traditional midterm playbook by putting Trump “on the ballot,” rather than keeping the sitting president at a distance.
Now, the people said, that plan is less attractive. Republicans will look to emphasize local issues rather than allegiance to the president, they added.
“The politics have changed,” said another of the people familiar with the meeting. “In January, nationalizing the race around him made some sense.
“Voters don’t feel the president is doing enough to make their lives cheaper, but they still believe Republicans want to do that,” the person said.
The Trumpworld strategist added that the Democratic Party’s low popularity gives Republicans an effective foil with which to contrast policy ideas.
Trump’s faltering support, though, could give Democrats fertile ground to attach Republican candidates to the president’s shortcomings, making some conservative campaign operatives skeptical of the White House’s political approach.
After campaigning in 2024 as a critic of “stupid wars” and styling himself as a “peace president,” Trump is now overseeing the largest U.S. military operation since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Critics say Trump’s administration showed little consideration of how Iran would respond to the joint U.S.-Israeli attack or the vast economic fallout, including an unprecedented global energy supply shock and the threat of a worldwide financial downturn.
Trump’s decision on Tuesday to indefinitely extend what was originally a two-week ceasefire was widely viewed as a retreat, with Tehran maintaining its grip on the Strait of Hormuz and commitment to a nuclear program.
Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for both Democratic and Republican administrations, said Iran believes it holds leverage with the vital oil shipment channel and can also endure more economic pain than Trump.
“The Iranians think Trump’s tolerance for an economic and political price is limited,” said Miller, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “They’re prepared to wait him out.”
(Reporting by Jacob Bogage, Nandita Bose and Matt Spetalnick; Additional reporting by Bo Erickson; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Nia Williams)
