By Holger Hansen
BERLIN, May 18 (Reuters) – Germany is expected to miss its 2030 climate goals and likely emit more carbon dioxide than previously thought, an independent advisory body said on Monday, contradicting the findings of the government’s main climate authority.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government laid out a climate plan in March backed by 8 billion euros ($9.3 billion) to fund measures such as expanding wind power and boosting sales of electric vehicles.
Europe’s biggest economy aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 65% from 1990 levels by 2030 and to be climate neutral by 2045.
So far, the reduction is about 48% and it comes amid growing fears about soaring energy prices and oil and gas flow disruption due to the Iran war.
The Council of Experts on Climate Change found the government’s programme insufficient and believes Germany could overshoot its CO2 emissions projections by up to 100 million metric tons. That compares with a possible overshoot of 4.5 million tons factored in by the government’s environment agency.
“The assumptions underlying the calculations, particularly in the energy and building sectors, need to be updated,” said the council’s chair, Barbara Schlomann.
“In our assessment, the programme’s actual reduction effect is likely to be significantly lower than assumed by the German government,” Schlomann said.
According to data from the environment agency, greenhouse gas emissions remained almost flat in 2025 as a decline in industry and energy sectors was offset by increases in construction and transport. The council also indicated forestry and land use as problematic areas.
Merz’s cabinet last week scrapped a contentious heating law passed by the previous government that was panned by critics as onerous and expensive for households.
The law will be replaced by a building modernisation law that will drop the requirement to include renewable elements.
($1 = 0.8602 euros)
(Writing by Matthias Williams; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
