PEORIA, Ill. – Over the past few years, the Lincoln Day Dinner hosted by the Peoria and Tazewell Counties Republican parties have brought in big names in national politics.
The keynote speaker in 2023 was Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. The following year featured U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson. And last year’s speaker was the former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley.
This year’s focus at Monday night’s dinner was more localized, and tripled in size. The lineup featured three candidates looking to unseat Democrats in November’s general election; Dillan Vancil of Gladstone in the 17th Congressional District, former head of the Illinois Republican Party Don Tracy, and gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey.
All three candidates face uphill climbs in their chances of winning. As of Tuesday morning, the Cook Political Report forecasts all three races as solid Democrat holds.
Bailey, who has a rematch with Gov. J.B. Pritzker after losing to him in 2022, says polling that year had him 25 points down after the primary in June. He ended up losing the race by 12%. But Bailey says it’s a lot different in 2026.
“Recent polling that we’ve conducted a month ago has us within 8 points, and that’s without us spending a penny,” Bailey said.
Bailey believes that gap will close more when the campaign continues to heat up, and shows the people of Illinois that there is a different option from what Pritzker is doing.
For the 2026 campaign, Bailey knows he needs to perform better in the Chicagoland area to have a chance. This year, Bailey has rented an apartment in Chicago, and is meeting more with residents in the Windy City about their concerns.
Bailey adds that victory comes down to having people show up on Election Day, as well as getting Republican voters to overcome perceived apathy about Chicago’s influence in elections. Bailey believes that by capturing at least 25% of the vote in Chicago, while getting at least 60% of the downstate vote, will make him the next governor of Illinois.
Dillan Vancil says he knows there’s work to do after seeing the polls for his race. But he notes there’s precedent for the type of candidate that can win a race in the 17th District.
“The last time they had a union-affiliated small business owner was Bobby Schilling. You know how that story went? He won,” Vancil said.
The late Bobby Schilling was elected in the 17th District during the 2010 “Red Wave” that saw Republicans pick up 63 seats in the U.S. House. But Schilling lost in 2012 to Democrat Cheri Bustos, then again in a rematch two years later.
Vancil’s background includes being Illinois Legislative Director for railroad companies, as well as the founder of Dame Fine Coffee. He has also served as Vice President of the West Central School Board.
Vancil says meeting people on the campaign trail will help him get over the top and unseat incumbent Democrat Eric Sorensen. He says that includes putting in more than 100,000 miles on his vehicle campaigning before the primary.
Vancil says what separates him is being a small business owner with economic ties to the 17th District, and his railroad unions ties. His message to voters on the campaign trail is about reducing red tape and regulations to help with small businesses.
Don Tracy has a vast background in state leadership organizations. Most recently, he served as Chairman of the Illinois Republican Party, leaving the role in 2024 after four years. In addition, he has served as Chairman of the Illinois Gaming Board and Secretary of the Illinois Bar Foundation.
His U.S. Senate campaign is the first run at political office, and is considered a heavy underdog against Juilana Stratton. Just like Bailey, Tracy believes the race will be won or lost by how many votes he can get in Chicago and the suburbs. And, just like Vancil, he believes past history can help him win, as a Republican Mark Kirk in 2010 won election the last time Illinois had a U.S. Senate open seat.
Tracy believes those voters and independents will start to turn to Republicans more in his race. He says voters would not be in favor of policies backed by Stratton, who he calls a “Democrat Socialist.”
Tracy says those policies include open borders, open jails, and open textbooks, being against school choice, and welfare programs for everyone.
“I don’t think those are positions that are attractive to the many, many independent voters, swing voters in the Chicago suburbs, and I plan to go after those voters,” Tracy said. “If I get enough of them, I’ll win the race.”
Tracy also believes the party is united behind him after the March primary campaign.
When viewing through a lens of elected positions, the state of the Illinois Republican Party is not in great shape. Democrats hold all the state constitutional elected positions, a supermajority in the Legislature, both United States Senate seats, and all but three Congressional seats.
The man tasked with turning that around as the new Chairman of the Illinois Republican Party says things can only go up from there. Former DuPage County Auditor Bob Grogan was elected to the role last month, and made an appearance at Monday night’s Lincoln Day Dinner in Peoria.
“We didn’t get here overnight,” Grogan said. “It’s going to take us a while to dig out and get better. But there’s a lot of room for growth, I think there’s a lot of passion.”
Grogan says he is seeing some positive signs going into the general election in November. One sign he’s noticed is more chatter on social media from people who never spoke up before about the state of the country and locally. Another sign of hope is seeing coalitions that were not part of the Republican party previously, such as blue collar workers, come to the party.
One of Grogan’s priorities as the new chairman is rebuilding the grassroots movement, feeling it has been neglected in the Illinois Republican Party. He says the problem was an assumption that everyone working on a campaign knew what to do; specifically how to campaign and how to talk about issues. Grogan believes he can make improvements in that area with his background in working with the grassroots.
Grogan says the party needs to be clearer and louder in its messaging, and to have a united front, despite what small differences people have within the party. But Grogan is also preaching patience as he looks to bring the party back to relevance in Illinois.
Listen to WMBD Radio’s conversations with Darren Bailey, Dillan Vancil, Don Tracy, and Bob Grogan here:
