By Gus Trompiz and Michael Hogan
PARIS, April 24 (Reuters) – Maize is set to lose more area in Europe this year as a jump in fertiliser and energy costs discourages some farmers as they plant spring crops, analysts said.
Crop forecasters at Expana and Argus Media expect the European Union’s grain maize area to slip below 8 million hectares in 2026 for the first time this century, as rising input costs due to the Iran war add to drawbacks for growers like low margins and yield risks from extreme summer weather.
“There are a lot of risks that have built up for maize, between fertiliser, drought and drying costs,” Argus’ Maxence Devillers said.
Maize (corn) is one of the most fertiliser-intensive grain crops and in Western Europe is usually dried after harvest, generating energy costs. These production factors are set to become more onerous as the war in the Middle East has sent fertiliser and energy prices soaring.
In France, the grain maize area could shrink by 10-15% this year, representing a loss of around 200,000 hectares, growers group AGPM forecast this month.
With oilseed crops like sunflower seed offering better margins, cost inflation is weighing against maize.
A dry spell in France has helped farmers advance in planting, with 56% of the grain maize area sown by Monday, ahead of the five-year average, according to farm office FranceAgriMer.
However, a forecast return of rain in early May will be important for crops’ early growth, analysts said.
In Poland, the grain maize area is likely to decline slightly, to about 1.25 million hectares from around 1.3 million hectares last year, said Wojtek Sabaranski of analysts Sparks Polska.
“The recent rapid rise in fertilizer prices is likely to have some impact on maize plantings, but probably not too much due the lack of planting alternatives and recent maize price strength,” he said.
In Germany, the grain maize area could rise this year, with early orders of fertiliser helping limit the impact of the Iran war.
The country’s farm cooperatives association forecast that grain maize sowings will increase 3.5% on the year to 507,000 hectares.
“Farmers had generally bought fertiliser in advance before the war started so for this year’s harvest they will not be hit by the rise in prices unless they need additional supplies,” one German grains analyst said.
(Reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Michael Hogan in Hamburg; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)
